Retail inflation to slid further to 3% in Apr; easing room for RBI rate cut

India's retail inflation is projected to ease further to 3% in April, strengthening the case for RBI rate cuts in second half of 2025. The expected dip from March's 3.2% comes on favorable base effects and moderating food prices, especially vegetables and pulses. Core inflation likely softened to 3.1%, staying within RBI's tolerance band for the 14th consecutive month. Economists anticipate the central bank may consider 25-50 bps rate reduction starting Q3 FY25 if monsoon remains normal. The inflation trajectory provides policy flexibility to support growth, with Q1 GDP estimates at 6.8-7%. However, RBI may wait for Fed moves and oil price trends before pivoting from its current 6.5% repo rate stance. The inflation print reinforces India's macroeconomic stability amid global uncertainties.